Who put the “mock” in all those mock drafts?

The Packerscreed, by David Benjamin
Who put the “mock” in all those mock drafts?

PARIS — One of the perverse pleasures of being a hardcore fan, in any sport, is the discovery — as you get deeper into the intricacies of inside baseball, inside football, inside croquet, whatever — that the season never ends. As soon as your team stops playing games, it starts gaming the game.

Next week, for example, the free-agent NFL flesh market opens, and it’ll be fun to watch, to see who goes where, how fast, and how grossly the most coveted players are overpaid. It’s also a little frustrating for a fan whose general manager, like the Packers’ Ted Thompson, tends to deplore free agents. The big issue with a GM like Thompson is not whom he might pluck from another team (Matt Forte? Muhammad Wilkerson? Malik Jackson?), but whether he’ll re-up his own guys (B.J. Raji, Mason Crosby, James Starks, Nick Perry, Mike Neal).

The wised-up Packer fan shrugs at the possibility of new blood coming to Lambeau through free agency. Instead, I focus on the Draft. And it’s still 69 days ‘til the Titans go “on the clock” (to pick Ole Miss LT Laremy Tunsil, ho hum).

Even on Draft Day, Packer fans have to wait ‘til the 27th choice (no, Ted won’t “trade up,” he almost never does). Thompson’s one of the most enigmatic and close-to-the-vest GMs in the NFL, which makes his choice almost impossible to anticipate. He’s also a devout believer in taking the best available player, regardless of position or the Packers’ needs. Knowing whom Thompson regards as the “best available” is an even deeper mystery. Nobody reads Ted’s mind.

Nonetheless, dozens of experts, posting and revising “mock drafts,” are boldly predicting the exact player that each team’s going to choose first.

For example, thanks largely to an impressively laborious website called SB Nation, I was able to review predictions by 53 mock prophets. These guys slotted 19 different draft-eligible football players for the Packers at the 27th spot.

Ted Thompson’s mock choices — named by the mockers, not Ted — leaned heavily toward defense and almost as heavily toward the defensive line, where almost everyone agrees that Ted won’t re-sign B.J, Raji, leaving a big hole to fill. This speculation will start to re-shuffle wildly if Thompson gets Raji to re-enlist before the Draft. I think the odds are good for Raji to come back home, but they were better before Ted re-signed Raji’s fellow run-stuffer Letroy Guion.

Thirty of the 53 mock drafts have the Pack picking either a defensive end or tackle. The leading choice, with eight votes, is DE Jarran Reed (6-4, 313) from Alabama, followed by Baylor tackle Andrew Billings (6-2, 310), with six votes. Other choices in this category are UCLA tackle Kenny Clark (6-3, 314), DE Kevin Dodd (6-5, 277) from Clemson, Eastern Kentucky DE Noah Spence (6-2, 251), Vernon Butler (6-4, 323) from Louisiana Tech, and Louisville DT Sheldon Rankins (6-1, 299). Last on the list, chosen for Ted by New Jersey sportswriter Darryl Slater, is Austin Johnson (6-4, 314), from Penn State.

My objection to this list, which includes some serious studs, is that none is a locked-down dead-to-rights first-rounder — like, say, Joey Bosa (Ohio State) or DeForest Buckner (Oregon). Thompson won’t take just any defensive linemen based on need. He’ll only draft one of these guys if he thinks he’s better than the available talent at other key positions — linebacker, tight end, offensive line.

OK, let’s talk inside linebackers. Alabama’s Reggie Ragland (6-2, 252), got six votes as the Packer pick. But Ragland is also the choice — in mock drafts — of nine teams that pick before Green Bay. The other best inside LB in Round One is Ohio State’s Darran Lee (6-1, 232), a fast, sure tackler rated among the Top 20 players in the Draft. Lee is also unlikely to be still on the board at pick No. 27.

Thompson might very well grab Ragland or Lee in Round One, if they slip that far. Ted likes (and needs) linebackers. He played the position. Ragland or Lee would represent a steal at the 27th pick. Thompson loves picking players who drop in the Draft — cf. Aaron Rodgers, Bryan Bulaga.

Other LB prospects pegged as Packers by mockers include Leonard Floyd (6-4, 244) from Georgia, who got three votes, Kyler Fackrell (6-5, 245) from Utah State and Arizona’s Scooby Wright (6-0, 239), whom Jason McIntyre of USA Today chose as Ted’s top pick. Trouble is, why jump? Wright — like Fackrell and Wisconsin’s Joe Schobert — will likely be available as late as the third round.

Everyone’s mystery linebacker is Notre Dame’s Jaylon Smith (6-2, 223), a top-ten athlete who tore his ACL in the Fiesta Bowl. Smith probably won’t play football in 2016. Thompson has taken chances on injured guys before, but three caveats make this marriage unlikely. First, Smith will probably be gone by pick No. 27. Second, Ted needs help at LB right now, not in 2017. Third is the grim memory of oft-injured defensive lineman Justin Harrell — picked 16th in 2007 and cut in 2010 after playing 14 forgettable games in four seasons.

Also among multiple vote-getters for the Packers is Arkansas tight end Hunter Henry (6-5, 250). There’s some question whether Henry is first-round material. But he represents a clear upgrade at a position where the Packers have been mediocre since the retirement of Jermichael Finley. Let’s say Ted will be tempted.

Finally, here’s a list of first-round mock-draft “Packers” whom the Packers either can’t get or don’t want, with my prediction of where they will be chosen: OT Le’Raven Clark, Texas Tech (6-5, 316, 2nd round), WR Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss (6-2, 221, Top 20), WR Corey Coleman, Baylor (5-11, 194, Top 25), cornerback Eli Apple, Ohio State (6-1, 199, Top 25).

When I first looked at this Draft, I saw a Jenga game. I still do. It’s one of those crazy years when some really high prospect just slides and tumbles, all the way down the board ‘til Thompson finds him there, crestfallen, frustrated and a little pissed off. And Ted will pull him out of the Cracker Jack box.

If that doesn’t happen, then my sentimental choice is the Razorback tight end. Any kid who could put up with Bret Bielema as his coach for three years must have a lot more moxie than the average Bear.